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Transparent Algorithms

How Lova
Calculates Your Cycle

Transparent, science-based predictions that get smarter with every cycle you track. No black boxes—understand exactly how your data becomes predictions.

Woman tracking her health data

±1 Day Accuracy

After 12+ cycles

On-Device

All local processing

What We Calculate

Four key predictions that help you understand your cycle

Cycle Length

Average of your last 3-6 cycles, weighted toward recent data for accuracy.

Weighted average with recency bias

Ovulation Day

Estimated 12-16 days before your next predicted period, refined with BBT data.

Luteal phase subtraction method

Fertile Window

5 days before ovulation through ovulation day, accounting for sperm survival.

Ovulation day - 5 to Ovulation day

Next Period

Based on your average cycle length from the start of your last period.

Last period + average cycle length

What Affects Your Predictions

Multiple data points combine to create personalized, accurate predictions

1

Historical Cycle Data

More cycles = better predictions. Lova uses 3-6 months of data when available.

40%
2

Cycle Regularity

Consistent cycles get tighter prediction windows; irregular cycles get wider ranges.

25%
3

BBT Data

Temperature shifts confirm ovulation and refine future predictions.

20%
4

Symptom Patterns

Cervical mucus, mittelschmerz, and other symptoms help pinpoint ovulation.

15%

Adaptive Weighting

These weights adjust based on your data quality. If you track BBT consistently, its weight increases. If you have few cycles logged, historical data gets weighted less until you build a baseline.

Accuracy Improves
With Every Cycle

Lova learns your unique pattern over time. The more you track, the better your predictions become.

No cloud processing—all calculations on your device
Adapts to cycle length changes automatically
Handles irregular cycles with wider confidence intervals
1-2
±3-5 days accuracy

Learning phase—predictions improve quickly

3-5
±2-3 days accuracy

Good baseline established

6-12
±1-2 days accuracy

Personalized predictions

12+
±1 day accuracy

Maximum accuracy for your unique pattern

The Science Behind the Predictions

Lova uses established reproductive science combined with statistical methods

Cycle Length Calculation

Method: Weighted moving average

Data used: Last 3-6 recorded cycles

Weighting: Recent cycles count more (exponential decay)

This accounts for natural cycle variation while remaining responsive to changes in your pattern.

Ovulation Estimation

Method: Luteal phase reverse calculation

Assumption: Luteal phase is 12-16 days (average 14)

Refinement: BBT shift confirms actual ovulation

Unlike follicular phase, luteal phase length is relatively consistent for each person.

Fertile Window

Method: Sperm survival + egg viability window

Start: 5 days before estimated ovulation

End: 24 hours after ovulation (egg lifespan)

Sperm can survive up to 5 days; the egg is viable for about 12-24 hours after release.

Confidence Intervals

Method: Standard deviation of historical cycles

Display: Shown as date ranges, not single dates

Adjustment: Wider for irregular cycles

Honest uncertainty communication—we show ranges, not false precision.

All Calculations Happen On Your Device

All predictions are computed locally on your device. When you sync, your data is encrypted before leaving—only you have the key. Lova never sees your unencrypted health data.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are my predictions sometimes wrong?
Cycle predictions are estimates, not guarantees. Stress, illness, travel, and lifestyle changes can affect your cycle. Lova shows prediction ranges to communicate this uncertainty honestly.
How does Lova handle irregular cycles?
For irregular cycles, Lova widens the prediction window and weighs recent cycles more heavily. It also suggests tracking BBT and symptoms to improve accuracy.
Do I need to track BBT for accurate predictions?
No, but BBT tracking significantly improves ovulation detection. Period tracking alone provides good estimates; BBT confirms exact ovulation timing.
How is fertile window calculated if I'm trying to conceive?
The fertile window includes 5 days before ovulation (sperm survival time) plus ovulation day. For TTC, Lova highlights the 2-3 days with highest probability.
Why does the app ask for my last few periods?
Historical data establishes your baseline cycle length and variability. The more data you provide, the faster Lova can personalize predictions to your unique pattern.

Start Building Your Cycle History

The best time to start tracking was last month. The second best time is today. More data means better predictions—begin your journey to cycle awareness.